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The Moore Inflation Predictor forecasts the inflation rate one year into the future with 97% accuracy.
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What is the Moore Inflation Predictor©?November 18, 2009 The Moore Inflation Predictor© (MIP) is a highly accurate graphical representation forecasting the future direction of the inflation rate. It has a 97%+ accuracy rate on forecasting inflation rate direction & turning points. And over 90% of the time the inflation rate falls within the projected "likely" range and 7% of the time it falls within the "possible" range. By watching the turning points, we can profit from inflation hedges (like Gold, Real Estate and Energy Producers) when the inflation rate is trending up and from Bonds when the inflation rate is trending down. In addition, the Moore Inflation Predictor forecast could be used to judge whether to lock in a mortgage rate or wait a month or two for a better rate. To see how well the MIP has done in predicting inflation see some previous MIP inflation forecasts with a reality line added. Note: Last month we added a blue shaded (under water) region to the MIP to indicate deflation. Current Inflation Prediction for 2009Current Inflation ForecastAs predicted the Annual deflation has almost played itself out. The current rate is just below zero at -0.18% . It reached a low of -2.10% in July and was at -1.48% in August. It was -1.29% in September. So with the current rate almost back to zero we may have seen the last of deflation for a long time. As a matter of fact we may be in for some massive inflation before the end of it all. At this point the MIP is limited by what it has seen over the last 10 months which has been inflationary but not excessively so. But history has shown that when it comes to hyperinflation it is like a dam breaking first there is a trickle and before you know it the whole river is trying to come through that crack. At this point the MIP is projecting that a year from now we could once more be at 5% inflation just as we were a year ago. But once the effects of the "stimulus" package kick in we will probably see massive inflation (perhaps even hyperinflation). Generally, it takes about 2 years for monetary stimulus to result in inflation, so we could begin seeing massive inflation just beyond the MIP's window. The MIP's major limitation is that it can't factor in things like government actions so we must "mentally note" that the MIP could be way low on its projections starting a year from now. Robert Prechter of the Elliotwave Theorist is forecasting deflation in spite of government actions to the contrary. To read his free report on on Why we are headed for Deflation in spite of it all Click Here. Doug Casey sees an inflationary crisis get his free report Crisis in Pictures. Also See Elliotwave article Do You Know how to Preserve Your Wealth? for more information on investing for safety. Tim McMahon, Editor Disclaimer: At Financial Trend Forecaster we are not registered investment advisors and do not provide any individualized advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance and future accuracy and profitable results cannot be guaranteed. |
 (click on chart for larger image) Don't miss next month's MIP Inflation Forecast! Yes, Notify Me when the new inflation forecast chart comes out!
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