Has It Paid To
"Follow" the Fed?
An
Excerpt from Conquer the Crash by Robert Prechter
Yes, that's a
provocative question. Think of all the people
who would squirm if they had to answer it.
For example, you'd
see lots of squirming on Wall Street and in the media. They told
stock market investors to trust the central bank in early 2001, by
endlessly repeating the phrase "Don't Fight the Fed!" That
was the conventional wisdom then, even though you don't hear
it anymore now. The Fed did not stop the stock market
from falling. Investors lost money.
The headline asks a
question with "No" as the obvious answer. The notion that
you "Don't fight the Fed" has been a costly myth.
True investment
wisdom usually packs a myth-busting punch, and Robert Prechter's
best-selling Conquer
the Crash explodes
dozens of costly financial and economic myths that the media repeats
every day. Conquer
the Crash has plenty to
say about the Fed -- here's an excerpt.
Excerpted
from Conquer
the Crash,
pp 123-124
“Potent
Directors”
The
primary basis for today’s belief in perpetual prosperity and
inflation with perhaps an occasional recession is what I
call the “potent directors” fallacy. It is nearly impossible
to find a treatise on macroeconomics today that does not assert or
assume that the Federal Reserve Board has learned to control both
our money and our economy. Many believe that it also possesses
immense power to manipulate the stock market.
The
very idea that it can do these things is false. Last
October, before the House and Senate Joint Economic committee,
Chairman Alan Greenspan himself called the idea that the Fed could
prevent recessions a “puzzling” notion, chalking up such
events to exactly what causes them: “human psychology.” In
August 1999, he even more specifically described the stock market
as being driven by “waves of optimism and pessimism.” He’s
right on this point, but no one is listening.
The
Chairman also expresses the view that the Fed has the power to
temper economic swings for the better. Is that what it does?
Politicians and most economists assert that a central bank is
necessary for maximum growth. Is that the case?
This
is not the place for a treatise on the subject, but a brief dose
of reality should serve. Real economic growth in the U.S. was
greater in the nineteenth century without a central bank than it
has been in the twentieth century with one. Real economic growth
in Hong Kong during the latter half of the twentieth century
outstripped that of every other country in the entire world, and
it had no central bank. Anyone who advocates a causal connection
between central banking and economic performance must conclude
that a central bank is harmful to economic growth.
For
recent examples of the failure of the idea of efficacious economic
directors, just look around. Since Japan’s boom ended in 1990,
its regulators have been using every presumed macroeconomic
“tool” to get the Land of the Sinking Sun rising again, as yet
to no avail. The World Bank, the IMF, local central banks and
government officials were “wisely managing” Southeast Asia’s
boom until it collapsed spectacularly in 1997. Prevent the bust?
They expressed profound dismay that it even happened. As I write
this paragraph, Argentina’s economy has just crashed despite the
machinations of its own presumed “potent directors.” I say
“despite,” but the truth is that directors, whether they are
Argentina’s, Japan’s or America’s, cannot make things
better and have always made things worse. It is a principle
that meddling in the free market can only disable it.
People
think that the Fed has “managed” the economy brilliantly in
the 1980s and 1990s. Most financial professionals believe that the
only potential culprit of a deviation from the path to ever
greater prosperity would be current-time central bank actions so
flagrantly stupid as to be beyond the realm of possibility. But
the deep flaws in the Fed’s manipulation of the banking system
to induce and facilitate the extension of credit will bear bitter
fruit in the next depression. Economists who do not believe that a
prolonged expansionary credit policy has consequences will soon be
blasting the Fed for “mistakes” in the present, whereas the
errors that matter most reside in the past. Regardless of whether
this truth comes to light, the populace will disrespect the
Fed and other central banks mightily by the time the depression is
over. For many people, the single biggest financial shock and
surprise over the next decade will be the revelation that the Fed
has never really known what on earth it was doing.
The
spectacle of U.S. officials in recent weeks lecturing Japan on how
to contain deflation will be revealed as the grossest hubris. Make
sure that you avoid the disillusion and financial devastation that
will afflict those who harbor a misguided faith in the world’s
central bankers and the idea that they can manage our money, our
credit or our economy.
This sort of
myth-busting fills the pages of Conquer
the Crash. It explains
in detail how you can protect yourself from the disastrous effects
of the approaching economic and financial upheaval.
Bob's book has two
parts. The first shows you why a massive deflation is inevitable.
The second part is practical. It explains, step by step, how you can
protect yourself from financial loss during this crisis. And now Conquer
the Crash is available
at all major bookstores.
If you place your
order online, you can instantly download and read chapter 1. For
more information, or to order online now (immediate shipping!),
click here:
Order
Conquer
the Crash Online Now!
Excerpted
with permission of the publisher John Wiley & Sons,Ltd. from
Conquer the Crash: You Can
Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression.
Copyright 2002 by Robert R. Prechter, Jr.
This
book is available at all bookstores and through www.amazon.com
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